Integrated decision system · no promised edge
Build a 6M Trading Plan With No-Trade Gates
The macro thesis is plausible: relative-rate evidence may support the peso. The order still fails. The exact 6M month has a spread above tolerance, displayed depth cannot absorb the planned quantity, and a scheduled release sits inside the holding window. A complete plan returns no trade even while the thesis remains alive.
Any failed hard gate returns wait, reduce or no trade.
Admission requirements
A Plan Begins With Six Records, Not a Buy-or-Sell Opinion
Each record has an owner and timestamp. Missing data remain missing; an intuitive substitute does not pass the gate.
Exact 6M month and year, quote direction, tick value, termination, broker cutoff and current versus next-month liquidity.
Market prior, new information, plausible transmission, competing forces, observable confirmation and falsifier.
Official Banxico, Federal Reserve, INEGI and other relevant release times across the proposed holding window.
Measurable entry condition, decision timestamp, reference price, time limit and what counts as no setup.
Dollar budget, invalidation price, 0.00001 tick distance, $5 tick value, cost estimate, gap stress and whole-contract cap.
Spread and depth limits, allowed order branch, partial-fill rule, cancel condition, emergency exit and connection health.
From information to branch
Separate What Happened From What It Might Mean for 6M
A policy statement, data release or risk shock is an observable fact. Its transmission through relative rates, capital flows, hedging and positioning is a mechanism. The resulting 6M direction and timing remain hypotheses until price and independent evidence confirm them.
Peso-supportive channel
For example, a relative-rate path or risk environment could improve demand for MXN exposure. Confirmation must be specified in observable rates, price or flow proxies.
Peso-adverse channel
The same information could signal weaker growth, financial stress or a stronger U.S. dollar response. Competing evidence can dominate the initial story.
Contradicted
Independent evidence or 6M behavior conflicts with the hypothesis. Reject the setup; do not widen invalidation to keep the story.
Unresolved
Channels disagree or the prior is unknown. Wait for a declared confirmation or let the opportunity expire.
Conditionally supported
Evidence passes the thesis gate. Continue to setup, risk and execution; no order is authorized yet.
A mechanism is not an empirical finding. This plan does not claim that a Banxico, Federal Reserve or global-risk state produces a fixed 6M direction.
Make the setup testable
Write Conditions That Can Fail Before an Order Exists
“Buy strength” or “sell a pullback” is not complete. A setup must identify the data source, exact dated contract, measurable condition, decision clock and invalidation logic. It should also say when a valid macro idea produces no technical entry.
Example specification pattern, not a recommended strategy
- Universe
- One declared 6M month selected from the live chain; continuous data may inform context but cannot receive the order.
- Condition
- A measurable price or market-state rule with exact inputs, lookback, session clock and no discretionary synonym.
- Confirmation
- An independent observation that is not algebraically derived from the same 6M price series.
- Decision time
- The moment all conditions become known and the benchmark price is frozen for later shortfall review.
- Invalidation
- A price, evidence or time state that disproves the setup; it is chosen before quantity.
- Expiry
- A deadline after which the setup is cancelled even if price never reaches invalidation.
Loss budget before collateral
Quantity Comes From Invalidation and Stress, Then Meets Margin
Use whole contracts. The current standard 6M Globex outright tick is $5. A broker's intraday margin display does not determine quantity and never defines maximum loss.
floor(risk budget ÷ (((stop ticks + stress ticks) × $5) + costs))=Risk-budget capPosition size is calculated only after the thesis or setup failure point is fixed.
Add a declared adverse-fill or gap allowance; understand that it cannot cap an extreme loss.
Include spread, expected slippage and explicit fees without counting overlapping components twice.
Round down. A result below one is a valid no-trade outcome because CME currently lists no matching Micro MXN future.
Check current CME and broker initial, maintenance, overnight and event requirements after risk size is known.
Cap aggregate USD, MXN, rates and global-risk exposure across all open and working positions.
The thesis cannot place the order
The Live Book Gets an Independent Veto
Record the bid, ask, depth and data timestamp at the decision point. Then choose which risk the order can accept: uncertain price, partial or non-fill, or stop-trigger behavior.
Observe
Exact month, fresh feed, spread, multiple depth levels and event state.
Estimate
Expected all-in shortfall for the planned quantity under the allowed order route.
Branch
Marketable, limit or stop-triggered logic with explicit non-fill and partial-fill rules.
Submit
Record decision price, order events, modifications, cancels, rejects and every fill.
Verify
Position, protection, quantity and stale working orders reconcile after each event.
If the spread exceeds tolerance, depth is inadequate, the feed is stale or the expected cost breaks the loss budget, the plan returns reduce, wait or reject. Chasing is a new decision and needs a new benchmark.
Calendar and holding-state controls
Planned Holding Time Is a List of Exposures, Not Just a Clock Duration
A trade that lasts two hours across a major release is not the same risk as two quiet hours. A position held overnight inherits gaps, changes in participation, broker margin rules and the chance that related cash markets are impaired or closed.
| State | Required record | Allowed branches | Fail closed when |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banxico decision | Official announcement time, market prior and event-specific stress | Avoid, reduce or use a separately validated event plan | The ordinary setup is being reused without event evidence |
| Federal Reserve decision | Official FOMC calendar, statement and press-conference window | Avoid, reduce or use a separately validated event plan | USD repricing window is absent from the plan |
| Mexico/U.S. data | Official release calendar, time zone, series and expected versus actual value | Wait for stabilization or follow a tested release protocol | Calendar source or timestamp is unverified |
| Overnight/holiday | Exchange hours, broker requirement, liquidity stress and emergency owner | Hold only under a declared overnight branch | The position depends on continuous exit liquidity |
| Expiry/roll | Termination, broker cutoff, target month, basis and roll route | Offset or controlled roll | A physically deliverable position could remain by accident |
Close the loop
Review Process and Outcome on Separate Axes
A sound plan can lose; a violated plan can profit. Scoring only account P&L rewards luck and hides operational risk.
Process evidence
- Were the source, contract and clocks correct?
- Did the evidence branch match the written prior?
- Did setup, size and market quality pass before entry?
- Were all order events and rule overrides preserved?
Outcome evidence
- What was gross and net P&L?
- What was implementation shortfall by leg?
- Did price or evidence invalidate first?
- Was the result inside the declared stress, and if not, why?
Update a rule only after classifying whether the failure was data, mechanism, setup, execution, risk, infrastructure or ordinary adverse variation. Preserve the old version and test the proposed repair on independent observations.
Printable one-page close
6M Plan Worksheet
Complete every field in writing. “Unknown” is useful information and normally maps to no trade.
| Block | Record before order | Hard failure |
|---|---|---|
| Contract | 6M month/year; quote direction; $5 tick; roll/termination/broker cutoff | Any ambiguity or stale specification |
| Evidence | Prior; new fact; mechanism; competing force; confirmation; falsifier | Story cannot be stated conditionally |
| Catalysts | Official events in holding window with time zone and source | Unknown or prohibited event state |
| Setup | Exact condition; decision clock; benchmark; invalidation; expiry | Discretion is required to decide whether it happened |
| Risk | Budget; stop ticks; stress ticks; costs; whole-contract cap; portfolio cap | Any cap is zero or maximum-loss language is implied |
| Execution | Spread/depth limits; order branch; partial fill; cancel; emergency exit | Live book or data health fails |
| Management | Evidence/price/time exits; overnight and event permissions; override owner | No action is defined for an adverse state |
| Review | Order ledger; shortfall; process score; outcome; repair owner | Original record can be edited after outcome |
Sources, methods and editorial disclosure — reviewed August 13, 2026
- CME Rulebook Chapter 256: Mexican Peso/U.S. Dollar futures and the CME FX Product Guide 2026 for contract identity, unit, tick and delivery controls.
- CME holiday and trading hours and the live CME 6M margins page for time-sensitive operational checks.
- Banco de México monetary-policy announcements for official decision releases and links to the published calendar.
- Federal Reserve FOMC calendars and statements for official U.S. policy-event timing and materials.
- INEGI/SNIEG 2026 national-information release calendar for official Mexican data-publication planning.
- CFTC basics of futures trading for leverage, margin, delivery and retail loss-risk context.
Sources were reviewed August 13, 2026. Calendar dates, hours, margins and broker rules are time-sensitive and must be refreshed for each plan. All scenarios are hypothetical decision examples, not trade recommendations, forecasts or results. The page reports no original edge, profitability, slippage or event-response study. A conditional mechanism earns only further evaluation; it never guarantees direction.