Fundamental Analysis for 6C Futures: What Actually Moves CAD/USD
Fundamentals matter more in 6C than in any other FX future except maybe 6A. CAD/USD is driven by oil, interest rate spreads, USD cycles, and global risk sentiment. If you don’t track these fundamentals, you’re not trading—you’re guessing. Here’s the blunt breakdown of what actually moves 6C.
The Big Four Fundamentals Behind CAD/USD
1. Crude Oil (WTI)
Oil is CAD’s heartbeat. Canada exports huge amounts of crude, so oil strength boosts CAD and oil weakness hurts it. When WTI enters a trend, 6C usually follows step-for-step.
- Oil up → CAD up → 6C rises
- Oil down → CAD down → 6C falls
Oil is the first chart you watch before placing any CAD trade.
2. Bank of Canada Policy
Rate expectations shape CAD’s direction. If traders expect the BoC to tighten, CAD strengthens. If they expect cuts, CAD weakens. It’s that simple.
This interacts with your BoC impact guide.
3. U.S. Dollar Strength
USD is half the pair. Strong USD drives CAD/USD lower, weak USD drives it higher. U.S. economic data often overshadows Canadian data entirely.
This ties into your U.S. data impact guide.
4. Global Risk Sentiment
CAD is a risk-on currency. When equities rally and investors feel optimistic, CAD strengthens. When markets panic, CAD gets dumped.
Secondary Fundamentals That Still Matter
1. Canadian Inflation Data
Canadian CPI influences BoC expectations. A hot CPI print increases the odds of rate hikes, driving CAD higher.
2. GDP and Employment Reports
Stronger Canadian economic data strengthens CAD. Weak data weighs on it. These events help define trend continuation or reversal days.
3. Oil Inventory Reports
Wednesdays at 10:30 AM ET can jolt both oil and CAD at the same time. High-impact for intraday traders.
4. Yield Spreads
CAD/USD direction often follows the Canada–U.S. 2-year yield spread. If Canadian yields rise faster than U.S. yields, CAD strengthens.
How Fundamentals Shape 6C Intraday Structure
Fundamentals don’t just move the weekly chart—they shape intraday price action too:
- Oil trends → clean intraday direction
- U.S. news at 8:30 AM → volatility burst
- BoC speeches → sudden sentiment swings
- Risk-on days → sustained CAD strength
If you understand these drivers, you can predict most of 6C’s movement before it happens.
How to Actually Use Fundamentals in 6C Trading
1. Build a Bias Before You Look at the Chart
Check oil, USD, and data calendars. If your bias matches the trend, lean into it. If not, stay cautious.
2. Use Fundamentals to Filter Setups
If oil and USD disagree, expect chop. If both align, expect clean structure.
3. Track Major Catalysts Daily
At minimum, monitor:
- Oil price
- USD Index (DXY)
- BoC statements
- U.S. economic releases
Final Thoughts
6C moves because of fundamentals—not randomness. Oil, central bank expectations, and USD cycles control CAD/USD. When you understand these forces, 6C becomes predictable, structured, and highly tradeable. Ignore them and you’ll always feel a step behind.