Excess at Extremes: Identifying True Auction Termination
Excess at extremes is how the market tells you “this auction is done.” When you see clear excess at extremes on the profile or tape, you’re looking at true auction termination, not just a pause. Ignore excess at extremes and you’ll keep chasing moves that already ended.
What “Excess at Extremes” Actually Means
In auction terms, excess at extremes is the market’s way of overshooting, getting rejected, and then never revisiting that price during the session. You’ll see:
- sharp rejection tails on the profile or candles
- single prints or thin structure at the very edge
- failed follow-through after the extreme is printed
This is the structural cousin of what you learned in auction tail rejections and exhaustion prints. Excess is just the bigger-picture footprint of the same idea: the move reached its limit.
How Excess Shows Up on TPO and Volume Profiles
| View | What You See at the Extreme | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| TPO Profile | Long, thin tail of single TPOs at the high or low | Market tested, got rejected, and didn’t build value there |
| Volume Profile | Low volume spike at the edge, with bulk of volume inside | Few were willing to trade at those prices |
| Candles | Long wick with no sustained follow-through | Breakout failed; responsive side smashed it back |
Excess means the auction went too far for the current session and found no interest beyond that point.
Excess vs Just a Regular Wick
Not every wick is excess. You’re looking for:
- a clear push into new territory (beyond prior high/low, value edge, or prior structure)
- fast rejection back inside the prior range or value
- no serious attempt to revisit the extreme for the rest of the session
A random intrabar wick in the middle of the range is just noise. Excess at extremes happens where it matters: at the auction’s edge.
Where Excess at Extremes Matters Most
Excess at extremes is most important when it shows up at:
- prior day high/low
- composite HVN edges and HVN rejection areas
- key swing highs/lows on higher timeframes
- breakouts from multi-day balance
Excess at random mid-range prices isn’t telling you much. Excess at a major reference says, “that direction is likely done for now.”
Excess and Auction Termination
True auction termination needs more than just a wick. You want:
- structural excess (tails/single prints)
- order flow exhaustion at the edge
- failure to build new value beyond the extreme
Once the market shows excess at extremes and moves back toward prior value, the current directional auction is usually finished and a new one starts in the opposite or sideways direction.
Using Excess at Extremes for Trade Decisions
1. Stop Chasing After Excess Prints
If you see clear excess at the high, you stop buying breakouts into that zone. If you see it at the low, you stop shorting breaks into that pit.
2. Fade the Move Back Into Value
When excess at extremes appears at a key level and price returns inside prior value or balance, fades back into the body of the profile become high-probability trades.
3. Use the Extreme as a Hard Reference
The excess high or low becomes your line in the sand. If the market trades through it and holds, your “auction termination” read was wrong and you get out.
Excess, Elasticity, and Snapback
Excess at extremes is where market elasticity finally snaps. The move stretched too far, participation dried up, and responsive traders shoved it back toward fair value. You already saw this behavior in market elasticity and snapback; excess is just the profile-level signature of the same thing.
Common Mistakes Reading Excess
- Calling every wick “excess” without looking at profile structure.
- Ignoring whether the market revisits the extremes later in the session.
- Trading against the move before excess actually forms.
- Forgetting higher timeframe context and treating intraday excess as a full multi-day top or bottom.
Putting It All Together
Excess at extremes is how the market marks true auction termination. You’ll see it as tails, single prints, low-volume edges, and aggressive rejection off new highs or lows that never get revisited. Read excess at extremes correctly and you’ll know when a move is actually finished, not just taking a breather — and you’ll stop being the trader buying right into the end of the auction.