U.S. Economic Data That Moves Silver Futures (SI)
Silver futures (SI) react violently to U.S. economic data—far more than most traders expect. SI isn’t just a precious metal; it’s a metals contract tied to industrial demand, inflation expectations, risk appetite, and the dollar. When major U.S. reports hit, SI doesn’t drift—it detonates. Here’s every release that matters, how hard it hits, and why.
1. CPI (Consumer Price Index) — The Nuclear Event
CPI is the single most violent report for SI. Inflation data directly affects:
- dollar strength
- Fed rate expectations
- risk appetite in metals
| Impact Type | Typical SI Reaction |
|---|---|
| 1-minute candle | 25–45 cents |
| 3-minute window | 50–90 cents |
| Total swing | 1.00+ dollar common |
SI often makes a two-stage move: 1) violent wick → 2) directionally committed move. If you don’t wait for that second stage, SI will chew your stop like a snack.
2. NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) — The Liquidity Shredder
NFP slams the metals complex via dollar volatility. SI’s book thins right before the release, then explodes.
- 30–60 cent bursts in under a minute
- breakouts that reverse instantly
- DOM sweeps that create air pockets
SI behaves worse than GC here because industrial demand is tied to economic growth. Strong jobs → stronger dollar → SI dump.
3. PCE — The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge
PCE isn’t as explosive as CPI, but it’s more directional. SI tends to follow through cleanly here compared to the chaos of NFP.
| Release Type | Typical Move |
|---|---|
| PCE YoY | 20–40 cents |
| PCE Core | 25–50 cents |
If you want a cleaner inflation release to trade, PCE beats CPI 10/10 times.
4. FOMC Interest Rate Decisions — Full Dollar Repricing
FOMC is two events: 1) the rate announcement, 2) the press conference chaos.
SI moves aggressively here because the dollar reprices instantly. You’ll see:
- 60–120 cent swings
- 5–15 tick spread jumps
- multiple fakeouts within seconds
If you’re not fast, don’t trade it. Watch it. Learn how SI moves when liquidity is on fire.
5. Retail Sales — Sneaky but Potent
Retail Sales hits SI indirectly—via the dollar and growth expectations. Strong data pressures SI lower; weak data lifts it slightly.
- 10–30 cent moves
- cleaner structure than NFP
- less slippage
Retail Sales often starts a trend that lasts into the COMEX open.
6. ISM Manufacturing & Services — Industrial Demand Shockwaves
SI is half precious metal, half industrial metal. So ISM hits it harder than GC.
| Report | Effect on SI |
|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 20–40 cent directional push |
| ISM New Orders | Strong reaction; industrial demand proxy |
| ISM Prices Paid | Inflation-driven metal repricing |
If ISM misses big, SI reacts immediately—even when GC doesn’t care.
7. Fed Speakers — The Silent Assassins
Random Fed commentary has become one of the biggest drivers of intraday metals volatility. SI reacts faster than GC because SI is more leveraged to growth expectations.
- 10–25 cent whipsaws out of nowhere
- trend reversals with no technical warning
- momentum bursts that stop traders cold
If you ever wondered why SI felt “off” at 1:15 p.m., check the news feed. It’s usually a Fed mouthpiece.
Final Takeaway
SI is hypersensitive to inflation, growth, and dollar volatility. CPI, NFP, PCE, and FOMC dominate price movement, with ISM and Retail Sales as the secondary drivers. If you trade SI without knowing the release schedule, you’re gambling—because SI doesn’t forgive ignorance. Respect the calendar, or it will burn you.