SI Volatility and ATR Profile for Silver Futures
Silver futures (SI) move harder than most contracts people touch, and ATR is the only honest way to see that in numbers instead of vibes. If you’re slapping tight stops on SI because “that’s my strategy,” you’re donating. This walkthrough shows how SI volatility behaves across timeframes and how to use ATR to set stops and size like you aren’t trying to die.
Why ATR Matters More on SI Than Most Contracts
SI isn’t ES. It’s a thin metals contract with a $25 tick value and a habit of swinging 100+ ticks like nothing happened. ATR exposes:
- how wide an average bar actually is
- whether the session is compressed or explosive
- whether your stop is realistic or just wishful thinking
You already know the contract structure from SI Tick Size and Contract Specs. ATR is how you translate that structure into real risk.
Typical SI ATR Ranges by Timeframe
These aren’t fantasy numbers; they’re realistic ranges SI lives in most of the time:
| Timeframe | Low Volatility | Normal | High Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-minute ATR | 3–6 ticks | 6–12 ticks | 12–25+ ticks |
| 5-minute ATR | 10–25 ticks | 25–60 ticks | 60–120+ ticks |
| Daily ATR | 0.40–0.70 $ | 0.70–1.20 $ | 1.20–2.00+ $ |
Remember: 1 cent in SI = 20 ticks. So a “small” 0.50 dollar day is 100 cents → 2,000 ticks → $50,000 per contract of full range on the day.
ATR as a Volatility Regime Filter
SI behaves like three different markets depending on ATR:
Compression Regime (Low ATR)
- 1m ATR under 6 ticks
- 5m ATR under 25 ticks
- Breakouts fail more often than they follow through
This is when traders force trades out of boredom and get chopped into paste.
Normal Regime
- 1m ATR 6–12 ticks
- 5m ATR 25–60 ticks
- Levels respect, breakouts behave, rotations are tradable
This is where SI is actually worth trading for most people.
Expansion Regime (High ATR)
- 1m ATR 12+ ticks
- 5m ATR 60+ ticks
- News, dollar spikes, or big macro drivers in play
Here, you either:
- size down dramatically
- widen stops and reduce trade count
- or stand aside completely
How to Use ATR for Stop Placement in SI
If SI’s 5m ATR is 40 ticks and your stop is 15 ticks, you don’t have a strategy—you have a countdown to a forced exit. Stops must at least respect current volatility.
Baseline Rule of Thumb
- Intraday swings: stop = 1.0–1.5× 5m ATR
- Scalps: stop = 0.5–0.75× 5m ATR but only in normal/low vol
- Higher-timeframe plays: stop = 1.5–2.0× 15m/1h ATR
Example: 5m ATR = 35 ticks → 1.0× ATR = 35 ticks → 1.5× = 52–53 ticks. A 50-tick stop on a clean intraday swing is actually reasonable here. A 12-tick stop is a joke.
Translating ATR to Dollar Risk per Trade
You can’t talk ATR without talking dollars. SI tick value is $25. So:
- 20-tick stop = $500 per contract
- 40-tick stop = $1,000 per contract
- 60-tick stop = $1,500 per contract
If your account can’t handle a normal ATR-sized stop on SI, you shouldn’t be trading the full contract. Either:
- drop size
- use the micro SIL (if your broker offers it)
- or focus on less violent products
ATR and Session Windows in SI
ATR isn’t flat across the day. You already saw session behavior in Best Times to Trade SI Futures. Here’s how ATR usually lines up with time of day:
| Session Window (ET) | ATR Behavior |
|---|---|
| Asian (6:00 p.m.–3:00 a.m.) | Low ATR, random spikes |
| London overlap (5:00–7:30 a.m.) | ATR ramps, structure improves |
| U.S. data & COMEX open (8:15–10:00 a.m.) | ATR explodes, trend or chaos |
| Midday (11:00 a.m.–1:30 p.m.) | ATR falls, chop returns |
| Afternoon (1:30–3:30 p.m.) | ATR bumps as positions reset |
If you’re trading SI without adjusting expectations by time of day, you’re mismatching your stops with the actual volatility regime.
Using ATR to Decide If SI Is Even Worth Trading Today
Some days, the best move is not to trade SI at all. ATR gives you a clean filter:
- If daily ATR has collapsed and intraday ATR is tiny → rotations are too small to justify SI’s tick size.
- If daily and intraday ATR have exploded → risk per trade may be too high for your account size.
- If ATR is in the middle, consistent, and stable → that’s your wheelhouse.
ATR isn’t just a stop tool; it’s a go/no-go switch.
Final Takeaway
SI volatility is not a mystery. ATR lays it out in ticks and dollars, and if you ignore it, you’re begging to get clipped. Know your 1m and 5m ATR going into each session, size your stops as a multiple of ATR, and make sure the dollar risk per trade makes sense for your account. Do that, and SI becomes a tradable instrument instead of a chaos generator.