Seasonal Patterns Unique to Lean Hogs

Lean hog seasonality isn’t folklore. It’s biology meeting a calendar.

Hogs grow, gain weight, and move through slaughter on timelines that repeat every year. When those timelines collide with predictable demand shifts, futures develop patterns that look seasonal because they are.

Why hog seasonality is real

Hogs are not stored inventory. They are living inventory.

Weather affects feed intake, weight gain, and health. Farrowing schedules determine when animals reach market weight. Slaughter capacity doesn’t scale just because the calendar flips. All of that repeats annually.

Weight patterns drive supply pressure

Seasonal weight gain matters more than traders expect.

Heavier hogs increase pork supply without increasing headcount. When weights rise, supply expands quietly. When weights fall, supply tightens even if animal numbers don’t change.

Demand timing adds fuel

Pork demand isn’t flat across the year.

Grilling season, holiday demand, and export timing all layer on top of supply cycles. When demand peaks into tightening supply, price accelerates. When demand softens into heavy supply, futures sink fast.

Why seasonals fail when traders treat them mechanically

Seasonal tendencies are not guarantees.

Disease, exports, feed costs, and macro shocks can override the calendar instantly. Traders who buy or sell hogs “because seasonality” without checking the underlying balance get punished.

What seasonality actually tells you

Seasonality doesn’t predict price. It frames pressure.

• when supply is most vulnerable
• when demand matters more
• when small surprises can snowball

In lean hogs, the calendar doesn’t move price by itself. It sets the conditions for how violently price can move when something else hits.