GC Volatility Profile and ATR Behavior
Gold futures (GC) are not a slow market. One contract controls 100 ounces, each tick is $10, and volatility can go from sleepy to insane in seconds around news. If you don’t understand GC’s volatility profile and ATR behavior, you’re not trading—you’re gambling with a high-explosive product.
GC Volatility Starts With Tick Value and Contract Size
Before you talk ATR or volatility zones, you need the basics:
- Contract size: 100 troy ounces
- Tick size: 0.10
- Tick value: $10 per tick
A 1.0 move in GC (for example, 2385.0 to 2386.0) is 10 ticks, which is $100 per contract. A 5.0 move is 50 ticks, or $500 per contract. That’s why GC volatility hits harder than people expect. If you haven’t read it yet, go back to GC tick size, tick value, and specs first.
Typical GC ATR Ranges by Timeframe
Exact ATR numbers change over time, but the ranges stay consistent enough that you can build rules around them. Think in terms of “zones” instead of pretending you’ll nail a perfect value.
| Timeframe | Low Volatility | Normal Volatility | High Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-minute ATR | 0.30–0.60 | 0.60–1.20 | 1.20+ |
| 5-minute ATR | 0.80–1.50 | 1.50–3.00 | 3.00+ |
| Daily ATR | 10–18 | 18–30 | 30+ |
These ranges mean:
- 1-minute ATR at 0.40 → GC is crawling.
- 1-minute ATR above 1.20 → GC is in expansion; expect violent bars.
- Daily ATR above 30 → macro event environment, not normal trading.
Average Intraday Swing Sizes in GC
GC tends to move in “rotations” rather than random ticks. You’ll see the same swing sizes repeat all day when volatility is stable.
- During quiet sessions: 1.5–3.0 point swings (15–30 ticks, $150–$300 per contract)
- During normal U.S. session: 3.0–6.0 point swings (30–60 ticks, $300–$600 per contract)
- During news / high vol: 8.0–15.0 point bursts (80–150 ticks, $800–$1,500 per contract)
If your stop is 0.8 points when GC is rotating 5 points at a time, you will get clipped on nearly every move. The size of the swings dictates the size of the stop, not what you “wish” your risk was.
GC Volatility by Session
GC volatility is not evenly distributed across the day. It follows the same session rhythm you saw in the best times to trade GC article.
| Session (ET) | Volatility Profile |
|---|---|
| Asia (6:00 pm – 3:00 am) | Low ATR, small rotations, fake structure |
| London (3:00 am – 8:00 am) | ATR expansion, first real trend legs |
| U.S. (8:00 am – 4:00 pm) | Highest volatility, strong directional moves |
If you’re trying to scalp GC in the middle of the night expecting U.S. session movement, that’s on you. The ATR isn’t there.
What ATR Actually Does for You in GC
ATR on GC is not a “nice to have” indicator. It tells you:
- how wide your stop needs to be to survive normal noise
- how far your targets can be without being delusional
- whether the market is in a compression phase or expansion phase
On a 5-minute chart:
- ATR at 1.0 → you’re in a calm environment; 2–3 point stops are already generous.
- ATR at 3.0+ → GC is flying; a 2-point stop is just begging to get slapped.
This is the same logic you applied to ES in ES ATR Behavior and Volatility Zones, just scaled to GC’s tick value.
Defining GC Volatility Zones With ATR
You can simplify GC’s volatility profile into three zones using 5-minute ATR:
| 5-Min ATR | Zone | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80–1.50 | Compression | GC is drifting, breakouts will be cleaner |
| 1.50–3.00 | Normal | Standard intraday behavior, good for most setups |
| 3.00+ | Expansion | News-level or macro volatility, size down or get out |
Your job isn’t to “fight” these zones. Your job is to adjust size and expectations to match them.
Risk Management: ATR × Tick Value = Reality Check
Your risk per trade in GC is just:
- stop distance (in ticks) × $10 × number of contracts
Example:
- 5-minute ATR ≈ 2.5 points
- you set your stop at 2.5 points (25 ticks)
- 25 ticks × $10 = $250 per contract
On a $5,000 account, that’s 5% risk for one GC contract. Two contracts is 10%. That’s how people blow out in a handful of trades and then blame “volatility.”
Adapting Position Size to GC Volatility
There are only three sane adjustments when GC volatility changes:
- keep your stop in ATR terms and reduce contracts
- reduce time in the market by trading only best sessions
- switch to MGC when volatility spikes instead of pretending it’s fine
Any other “solution” is just hoping GC behaves according to your comfort level. It won’t.
Final Takeaway: GC Volatility Is Your Risk, Not a Surprise
GC has a clear volatility profile: specific ATR ranges by timeframe, predictable swing sizes, and session-based expansion patterns. Once you know that a normal GC swing is 3–6 points and that news can push 10+ points quickly, you stop pretending a 1-point stop on a full-size contract is reasonable. Volatility isn’t the problem—ignoring it is.