Trigger class · surprise · live state · conditional priority
6S Macro Triggers: A State-Dependent Triage Framework
There is no timeless leaderboard of events that move the Swiss franc “most.” An expected SNB decision can matter less than an unanticipated funding shock; a large payroll headline can matter less than its revisions; a geopolitical event can be absorbed quickly or transform the entire policy outlook. Priority comes from surprise, channel relevance, live state, liquidity and confirmation—not the event name alone.
- Event name
- Context only
- Surprise
- Versus frozen prior
- Channel
- Observable route
- Priority
- Expires with state
What kind of information arrived?
Start With Trigger Class, Not a Fixed Rank
The class identifies primary documents, clocks and plausible channels. It does not assign a typical move or direction.
Swiss policy
SNBU.S. policy or data
Fed / BLS / BEAGlobal shock
UnscheduledMarket-structure event
ExecutionScheduled policy interpretation belongs to the SNB decision framework; shock classification belongs to the global-risk scenario map. This page owns only the cross-trigger triage.
Information is relative
Score Relevance Only After Freezing the Prior
A large number can be fully expected, while a small wording change can alter a policy path. Use qualitative grades only when their definitions are fixed before the outcome; do not convert them into unsupported return forecasts.
Trigger intake record
Store the primary release and exact timestamp; contemporaneous expectation and source; previous official vintage; changed fields and revisions; expected channel; scheduled overlaps; quote-correct 6S state; active contract; and market-quality limits. Unscheduled shocks use the last verified pre-shock state as the prior and explicitly mark what was unknowable.
- Expected
- Within archived prior
- Different
- New but bounded
- Discontinuous
- State may have changed
- Unknown
- Prior not auditable
Price magnitude after the event cannot substitute for an expectation recorded before it.
A trigger matters through a route
Map the Candidate Channel Before Looking for Confirmation
The same release can affect several routes in opposing directions. State the required chain and an independent invalidator for each.
SNB–Fed path
Requires comparable, timestamp-aligned curve repricing at the thesis horizon. Reject if the relative move is absent or caused by a rival event.
Broad-dollar
Requires USD breadth across non-circular measures. Reject if CHF-specific crosses explain the move better.
Haven and funding
Requires evidence about portfolios, collateral or currency funding. Reject a generic risk label when the funding currency points elsewhere.
Intervention constraint
Requires official stance or delayed transaction evidence. Reject price-only claims about an SNB order.
Fact: CME quotes 6S in USD per CHF, so higher 6S is consistent with CHF appreciation versus USD. Inference: the cause of that move remains unidentified until the registered channel evidence appears.
Priority is conditional and temporary
Assign One of Four Live Triage States
Do not add arbitrary points and call the result scientific. Use hard gates followed by an ordinal decision whose supporting fields are visible.
| State | Required evidence | Permitted use | Exit condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ignore | No auditable surprise, irrelevant horizon or data failure | Log only | New primary information creates a valid record |
| Monitor | Surprise exists, but channel or cross-market confirmation is incomplete | Watch named fields; no directional claim | Confirm, conflict or expire |
| Elevated | Surprise, channel and independent evidence align; liquidity remains uncertain | Prepare risk plan under separate strategy | Market-quality failure or thesis invalidation |
| Action-eligible | All information, quote, market-quality and strategy gates pass | Only the separately validated rule may act | Any hard gate fails or time window expires |
Current inflation, growth, funding and policy constraints determine which trigger has relevant information.
A high-information event can still be ineligible when spread, depth, gap or latency violates the plan.
A release can dominate minutes while having little verified relevance to the registered multi-day decision.
Priority ends at a declared checkpoint. It is not carried forward until a later move makes it look right.
Close the loop
Review the Trigger Without Ranking From the Outcome
A large move does not prove the event deserved high ex-ante priority; a small move does not prove it was unimportant. Compare the frozen triage record with what was observable at each checkpoint.
Preserve the intake
Hash or archive the prior, release, trigger class, channel and initial state.
Audit the clock
Separate first response, later reversal, policy follow-up and contract-roll effects.
Grade the mechanism
Confirmed, mixed, rejected or unidentified—never “right” from price alone.
Grade execution separately
Eligible, blocked or failed after actual spread, depth, latency, slippage and risk controls.
This framework does not publish a historical ranking of SNB, FOMC, CPI, payroll, geopolitical or liquidity events. Such a ranking would require a fully specified, versioned event study with uncertainty, controls and out-of-sample stability.
Sources, methods and editorial disclosure — reviewed August 21, 2026
- Swiss National Bank, monetary-policy decisions for official SNB packages and publication structure.
- Federal Reserve, 2026 FOMC calendar and meeting materials for statements, implementation notes, minutes and projections.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation — July 2026 and Consumer Price Index — July 2026 for release-package and revision methods.
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays — June 2026 for vintage and revision context.
- Bank for International Settlements, Foreign currency funding risk and cross-border liquidity (2026) for funding-channel structure.
- CME Group, FX Product Guide 2026 for 6S quotation and current contract context.
Sources and methods were reviewed August 21, 2026. This page is a decision framework, not an empirical ranking. It separates official facts, candidate mechanisms, conditional inference and strategy eligibility.