6M Seasonal Patterns
The Mexican Peso isn’t random. USD/MXN shows repeating seasonal tendencies every year, and these patterns directly carry into 6M futures. Seasonality in the Peso is strong because Mexico has predictable flows of tourism, remittances, tax deadlines, export cycles, and business funding rhythms. If you understand these flows, you gain an automatic edge in timing long-term and medium-term 6M trades.
Why Currencies Have Seasonal Behavior
A currency strengthens when demand for it increases and weakens when demand decreases. That demand isn’t constant. Large economies move money in predictable cycles—companies pay taxes at the same time each year, tourism happens during the same months, and export revenue flows at recurring intervals.
The Peso follows this rule heavily because Mexico depends on:
- tourism inflows
- manufacturing exports to the U.S.
- oil-related revenue
- remittances sent home by Mexican workers abroad
These cycles create a predictable push-and-pull in USD/MXN that 6M traders can leverage.
1. January and February: Peso Strengthens
At the beginning of the year, Mexican corporations repatriate funds for tax obligations and budget resets. This increases demand for MXN and causes USD/MXN to fall. That means 6M futures typically trend downward.
Reasons:
- corporate tax payments requiring pesos
- importers buying MXN to pay local vendors
- investment inflows for the new year
These months often set the tone for early-year Peso strength.
2. March and April: Mixed but Often Bullish for MXN
As tax season continues, demand for MXN stays elevated. However, volatility increases because this is when the U.S. begins releasing major Q1 economic data.
Typical results:
- MXN strength if U.S. data is neutral or weak
- MXN weakness if U.S. rate expectations rise
Because of this, 6M often forms its first large directional trend of the year in April.
3. May through August: Peso Weakens
This is the most reliable seasonal pattern for USD/MXN: the Peso commonly loses strength during the summer months.
This happens for three main reasons:
- lower tourism inflows prior to the peak season
- corporate capital flowing outward, not inward
- global risk-off behavior during summer trading
Summer is historically one of the weakest periods for MXN. 6M futures tend to trend upward modestly or at least find a consistent bid.
4. September and October: Peso Volatility Increases
These months often bring highly volatile USD/MXN movement. Several factors hit at the same time:
- U.S. Federal Reserve policy announcements
- Mexico’s budget planning and financial reporting
- energy market volatility during hurricane season
- renewed bond-market speculation
The Peso can strengthen or weaken rapidly depending on global risk sentiment. These months reward trend traders and punish scalpers.
5. November and December: Peso Strengthens Again
The end of the year typically brings Peso strength for predictable reasons:
- massive remittance inflows for holidays
- tourism season beginning in December
- corporations closing books and repatriating funds
Families abroad send money home, tourists bring in dollars and exchange them, and companies prepare for year-end accounting. All of this increases demand for MXN and pushes USD/MXN lower—meaning 6M futures drop.
Why 6M Seasonality Works Better Than Other FX Futures
Seasonality works on MXN better than on EUR, JPY, or GBP because Mexico’s economic flows are tighter and more cyclical. Europe is too large and diversified for strong seasonal patterns. Japan’s currency cycles mostly around global bond yields. But Mexico’s Peso relies on consistent, repeated events that do not change year-to-year.
This means seasonal tendencies in USD/MXN are more reliable than in most major currency futures.
How to Use Seasonality in 6M Trading
You don’t treat seasonality as a signal by itself. You use it as a framework. It tells you which direction is more likely to sustain large multi-week moves.
For example:
- If January historically strengthens MXN, you favor shorts on 6M unless price action says otherwise.
- If July historically weakens MXN, you look for reasons to go long on 6M.
- During volatile months like September, you expect larger breakouts and avoid tight stop losses.
Seasonality gives context. It tilts the odds before you even look at the chart.
Definitions for Screen Readers
Seasonality: A repeatable pattern that occurs during certain months due to economic behavior that happens on a regular schedule.
Remittances: Money sent home by people working in another country. For Mexico, this usually means money sent from the U.S. to family in Mexico.
Repatriation: When companies bring foreign currency earnings back into their home currency.
Tourism inflow: Money brought into an economy by visitors from other countries.
Bottom Line
The Peso has some of the clearest seasonal behaviors in the currency world, and 6M futures reflect those patterns directly. Understanding when MXN tends to strengthen or weaken gives traders an immediate advantage in planning swing trades, anticipating volatility, and avoiding false expectations during quiet months. The next article explains why slippage hits 6M traders harder than almost any other FX future—and how to avoid the traps.