Mean Reversion Signals in 6J: When Yen Snaps Back Hard

6J futures trend clean, but when they snap back, they snap hard. Mean reversion in 6J isn’t random; it’s tied to very specific conditions involving liquidity, yields, and failed macro expectations.

1. Failed Breakouts During Tokyo–Singapore Overlap

6J trends hardest during the overlap. When a breakout fails during this window, it's almost always a trapped-flow reversal.

• breakout wick
• instant reclaim of the level
• fast follow-through the other way

If you study 6J structure, you’ll recognize this pattern immediately.

2. U.S. Treasury Yield Snaps

If yields reverse sharply after a CPI or NFP spike, 6J will often mean revert within seconds.

Yield Move	6J Reaction
Yields rip up then fade	6J spikes upward
Yields dump then bounce	6J drops

This ties into your deeper rate-spread breakdown from your yield relationship article.

3. Liquidity Vacuums After News

Huge news candles leave imbalances. When price has no liquidity behind it, it often snaps back to refill the void.

The logic behind this concept is covered in liquidity voids.

4. Failed BOJ Narrative Days

Sometimes markets price in BOJ hawkishness or intervention risk and… nothing happens. When expectations fail, 6J mean reverts violently.

• Yen expectations unwind
• Carry trade resumes
• 6J reverses the entire move

5. Overextended Moves in Dead Zones

Moves during low-liquidity U.S. lunch hours tend to retrace fully once real liquidity returns.

This matches the timing patterns in your lunch liquidity article.