6E Gap Behavior: Why Euro FX Futures Gap and How to Trade It
Most beginners think 6E gaps because “the market opened weird.” No. Gaps in Euro FX futures come from rollover mechanics, weekend FX flows, and the difference between CME futures hours and the 24/5 spot FX market. If you don’t understand these drivers, you’ll get smoked trying to fade or chase gaps blindly.
The Three Types of Gaps in 6E
6E only has three real gap types:
- Weekend gaps (spot forex moves while CME is closed)
- Rollover gaps (contract pricing differences)
- Microstructure gaps (thin liquidity in off-hours)
Weekend Gaps: The Most Common
Spot EUR/USD trades all weekend. 6E does not. When CME opens, futures adjust instantly to catch up with the spot price.
| Cause | Effect on 6E |
|---|---|
| Geopolitical headlines | Large gaps at Sunday open |
| Rate rumors | Sharp directional gaps |
| Macro surprises | Big re-pricing against low liquidity |
This is the same relationship explained in 6E vs spot flow.
Rollover Gaps: Pricing Differences Between Contracts
When the front-month contract rolls to the next contract, slight pricing differences appear because of interest rate expectations. This can create what looks like a gap on the chart, but it’s mechanical—nothing more.
For rollover behavior, see the 6E expiry guide.
Microstructure Gaps During Thin Liquidity
These show up during:
- Low-liquidity Asia session
- Holiday trading
- Minutes after big news releases
Thin liquidity can make price jump over levels, leaving “gaps” on footprint or candle charts.
Do 6E Gaps Fill?
Here’s the honest answer: Usually, but not always.
Weekend gaps
- Fill rate: ~70–80%
- Mostly fill within the first 24 hours
Microstructure gaps
- Fill rate: high
- Often fill the same session
Rollover gaps
- May never fully “fill” because the difference is contract-based
How to Trade 6E Gaps Without Getting Trapped
1. Don’t fade gaps blindly
A gap is not “overextended price.” It’s a re-price to new information.
2. Watch spot EUR/USD first
Spot leads. If spot is still trending hard, the gap won’t fill anytime soon.
3. Use order flow to confirm the fade
Footprint imbalance or delta shift gives confirmation—covered in 6E order flow.
4. Don’t hold into dead liquidity
If you’re fading a weekend gap, wait until London opens. Asia won’t give you the fill.
5. Always consider macro catalysts
If the gap was caused by major news, expect continuation first, fill later.
Final Thoughts
6E gaps aren’t random—they’re mechanical, structural, and often predictable. If you understand why they form and how they fill, you can trade them safely instead of getting blown out by blindly betting on the fill.