Break-Even Math for Futures Traders
Break-even isn’t a vibe, a feeling, or a “pretty close” number. It’s the exact number of ticks you must make just to offset commissions. If you’re scalping without knowing this, you’re lighting money on fire.
What Break-Even Actually Means
Break-even ticks are the minimum number of ticks needed to cover your round-turn cost. If your profit target is smaller than that number, your strategy is mathematically doomed, no matter how good your entries feel.
The Formula (You Only Need One)
Break-even ticks = Commission ÷ Tick Value
Always round up. You never get partial ticks in your P&L.
Contract Examples
MES (Micro S&P 500)
- Tick value: $1.25
- Round-turn commission: $1.20
- Break-even: 1.20 ÷ 1.25 = 0.96 → 1 tick
MNQ (Micro Nasdaq)
- Tick value: $0.50
- Round-turn commission: $1.20
- Break-even: 1.20 ÷ 0.50 = 2.4 → 3 ticks
GC (Gold Futures)
- Tick value: $10
- Round-turn commission: $2.50
- Break-even: 2.50 ÷ 10 = 0.25 → 1 tick
Quick Comparison Table
| Contract | Tick Value | RT Commission | Break-Even (Ticks) |
|---|---|---|---|
| MES | $1.25 | $1.20 | 1 |
| MNQ | $0.50 | $1.20 | 3 |
| GC | $10 | $2.50 | 1 |
Why This Matters
Most losing traders aren’t wrong about direction — they’re wrong about math. If you scalp for 2 ticks on MNQ but your break-even is 3 ticks, you lose long-term even if you “win” more trades than you lose.