Probabilistic Execution
Tactics to Avoid the Guillotine: a blunt futures trading manual about risk, position sizing, and execution so you stop trading like the rules do not apply to you.
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Risk first, setups second. Every trade starts from "how much can this hurt me if I am wrong?"
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Execution over prediction. Clear rules from idea to exit so you are not improvising with size on.
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Probability-aware behavior. Trade like the odds are real numbers, not background noise.
Who this is for
This is not a beginner "what is a candlestick" book. It is for traders who already know how markets move but cannot stop sabotaging themselves with position size, risk, and execution.
- Futures traders who size off vibes and then wonder why every swing feels like a heart attack.
- Prop traders who keep failing evaluations on a handful of preventable decisions.
- Discretionary day traders who have decent ideas and terrible risk discipline.
- System traders who want their execution to match their stats instead of their emotions.
- Recovering gamblers trying to treat trading like a business with rules and limits.
What you will actually get
No theory dump. No "just control your emotions" pep talks. You get concrete rules and structures you can bolt directly onto your trading.
- Risk and sizing framework. How to define account risk, per-trade risk, and daily pain limits that you can actually stick to.
- Volatility-based sizing. Why the same contract size is not the same risk every day, and how to normalize it.
- Scaling rules. When to add, when to cut, and when to flatten so you are not winging it mid-trade.
- Execution playbooks. Step-by-step flows from "idea" to "flattened" so you stop improvising with real money.
- Risk limits with teeth. Daily and weekly rules that shut you down before you spiral, not after.
- Post-trade review templates. Simple ways to track behavior and tighten up without drowning in spreadsheets.
About the author
I am Kyle Parrott. I run Grizzly Parrot Trading, a futures-focused site built around blunt, practical education instead of hype. No rented cars, no signals group, no Discord cult.
Probabilistic Execution comes out of watching traders, including myself, ignore probability, size like degenerates, and then act surprised when the math catches up. This book is the answer to the question: "How do I run this like a professional operation instead of a slightly more sophisticated casino?"
Ready to stop trading like the odds are fake?
If you are tired of good ideas dying under bad execution, this is the part where you either keep doing what you are doing, or you pay a real price and get a real rule set.